There will be a new iPhone this year. Probably. Almost certainly. All the signs point to it. And there are indications – small but there if you look for them – as to what changes will be.

First, realize that messing around with a winning game was ever fraught with danger. And the iPhone is the winningest — if Apple can use funnest then winningest is acceptable — mobile device ever made.

In almost all of its lines of products Apple has reported record sales, record profits and record revenue. The company sold 2.3 million computers, 22.1 million iPods and 2.3 million iPhones in the fourth quarter of 2007.

The stock market, showing the inherent stupidity which has got it into its current mess, immediately lowered the price of the shares because they ‘fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.’ On Wall Street’s current form its expectations would not be worth a toss.

Apple said it had had sold 4 million iPhones, but most analysts, a demonstrably useless bunch when it comes to estimates, were expecting a number more like 5 million.

Yet, the iPhone is easily the most successful cell phone launch in history and, arguably, the most successful launch of an electronic device. (The Mac printer may have an edge in early dollar sales adjusted for inflation but let us not argue.) Out of the box Apple gained 20 percent of all smart phone sales and changed the way people relate to electronic devices. A work of wonder and genius.

Will Apple sell 10 million units as Steve Jobs forecast? Partly it depends on the market in China. There are a million in use there already. And ask not whether they are official sales. They are not.

You can argue that Steve Jobs set people’s expectations too high. Indeed, some analysts do. Bollocks.

What Apple did was totally revolutionize an industry and nothing will ever be the same again. Not in the way we think of mobile devices. Not in the way we access mobile devices. Not in the way we use mobile devices.

Apple’s Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer has just said Apple ‘felt confident’ about reaching its goal of 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008.

That means two things are certain, one is possible.

First the market in China is going to have a special iPhone at a special price. It will have everything the current machine has but be less expensive although it will be tied to a carrier.

Next we are going to see a new iPhone in the middle of this year or very shortly afterwards.

There is no secret Apple update agenda for what it sells. It produces new machines when it feels the market needs it. The market will need the new iPhone around July/August.

What will it have? Absolutely 3G. Absolutely built-in GPS. Absolutely a much improved digital camera with, at a guess, 4 megapixels being the minimum. A slot for fitting memory cards is a possible. An interface whereby you could easily add a keyboard is another. And better interfacing with high-fidelity add-ons. It will also have an improved means of charging. Plugless. Lay the iPhone on a small plate and it is recharged.

The third way in which sales could be rocketed, and this is only a possibility, is that Apple will sell unlocked iPhones (and unlock all the rest) for all network carriers by some sort of new and simple software update.

On May 25 the 2 years contract in the United States with AT&T on iPhone product will be over although the story is that there is an option to extend.

But if that contract ends and the iPhone can then be sold for any SIM and any network carrier. Possible. Not probable but possible. Even if that contract does not end it might be possible for Apple to introduce a totally different model. Perhaps it could be called: ‘Just one more thing.’

In either case sales will go through the roof. Not so much in the United States as everywhere else in the world. Steve Jobs forecast 10 million sales.

What will the analysts say if he is proved to be right? No doubt they have their denial plausibility phrases already in position. When, perhaps not if, the new iPhone comes out later this year they will have to be excuse-ready.

Related:

iPhone 3.0 – features and specifications; top iPhone 2009 rumors

11 year old hacker creates malicious iPhone 1.1.3 installer

Apple may introduce iPhone 2 with 3G capabilities

iPhone 2 may cost just $200 with two-year contract

iPhone sets the pace in smartphone marketplace

Entry was posted on Wednesday, January 21st, 2009 at 1:26 am under Uncategorized.  Print This Post

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