New tech and financial industry research indicates that quite possibly Apple will be able to sell 50 million iPhones per year soon, with that number rising to 80 million by the year 2012.

Two leading industry researchers have independently reported that they expect Apple’s iPhone sharp sales increases to continue for a least a couple of more years. Both Bernstein Research and RBC Capital Markets expect to see the overall smartphone marketplace grow at a rapid pace over the next few years, and both expect that Apple will take an increasing share of those sales worldwide, according to an AppleInsider story.

Tony Sacconaghi, who is a hardware analyst for Bernstein Research, predicted that Apple would sell more that 50 million iPhones by the September 2011 fiscal year end and 80 million by the end of 2012. The report, which was released by Barron’s, predicts further that the smartphone marketplace will grow by 27 percent on both 2010 and 2011, huge increases in a business sector already growing in a major way.  Sacconaghi feels that much of the growth in iPhone sales will come through extending its handsets to other wireless carriers. As an example, he says that Verizon will sell 11 million phones during the first year the phone is made available to them. And, of course, the iPhone is already expanding into Europe, and and has recently cut a $1.5 billion deal with a Chinese carrier.

Mike Abramsky, who is an analyst with RBC Capital Markets, may have even more glowing predictions. He feels that the iPhone will have a 16 percent share of the smartphone market by 2012, a huge increase from today’s slice of the pie. He also predicted that the iPhone would sell 82.1 million units in 2012, very close to the Bernstein estimate.

Abramsky said, “Despite the iPhone’s introduction more than two years ago, competitors continue to lag iPhone’s sleek touchscreen experience, robust third-party applications platform, and tight multimedia integration. Off the strength of its brand, innovation, and customer loyalty, Apple is expected to retain its premium carrier subsidy versus competitors, sustaining above-peer margins for its smartphones. We believe Apple will sustain its lead in content, games, and apps, which we expect to expand to include mobile commerce, user-generated content, advanced gaming, etc.”

Predictions such as this seems to be very common these days, and all of them end with glowing reports of Apple’s future financial health. It is, indeed, hard to see where so many analysts could be wrong. The iPhone shows every sign of being the device that will catapult Apple in to the very top ranks of electronics manufacturers over the next few years.

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Entry was posted on Wednesday, August 19th, 2009 at 1:49 pm under International, Opinion, iPhone.  Print This Post

Read more entries by Michael W. Jones.
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