Will Android kill the iPhone in 2010?
The concept of the Android phone, especially one manufactured by Google itself, seems to be getting a lot of ink. Is it because the press thinks it’s better than the iPhone or because the press loves to watch a fight?
First (in terms of recent press) came the Motorola Android phone, which was immediately billed an iPhone killer by many, just as many other phones have been before it. Now, with Google behind the building of a handset to run their cell phone operating system, the predictions of the iPhone’s demise are getting yet more shrill, according to an article in the Guardian. Of course, at least in the United States, there is a certain preference for the underdog, and much of the populace (including the technical pundits) like to see a leader under assault. If nothing else, it makes for a better story than the continuation of the status quo.
But, in reality, none of the iPhone killers (Blackberry Storm, Palm Pre, Motorola Android. etc.) heralded in the past have killed the iPhone. Similarly, the iPhone has not killed the RIM Blackberry line of smartphones, currently the market leaders. It takes a lot of time to kill a market leader. Especially in the smartphone game, where leapfrogging models keep the duels alive and the media fired up, you are only as good as your last update or new model. When a new phone comes out, like the Google Android, it is setting new records every day, since any sales at all are a big increase over the zero sales they had before they were introduced.
By all accounts, the so-called Google phone is a very nice smartphone. Like all such devices it has its good and bad points. It is as yet unproven in the wild, and it will take a while to make a real name for itself, beyond the one that Google provided it with at birth, which will certainly be helpful. But we can’t forget that Apple and Blackberry will continue to raise the bar, or that the wireless carrier wars will continue to play themselves out. Nobody is going to kill anybody in a hurry, though you won’t always be able to tell that by the media talk from the sidelines.
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January 2nd, 2010
in just a few years, not counting throw-away freebies and third world phones, all phones will be “smartphones” of some kind. this market is far too big for any one brand or OS to dominate it. there is no compelling need (as there was for computers in the 1990′s) for a standard OS or standard set of compatible software or a standard browser.
instead you will see several branded “ecosystems” featuring a line of smartphones – and much more. RIM and Apple have already established theirs, Apple’s by far the most wide reaching to date. MS has been talking about it for years, but has failed to deliver – and WinMo 7 may be too little far too late. Nokia is talking about it too, we’ll see if they know how. Palm has no hope. and Google of course is working on a lot of pieces meant to be tied together in “the cloud.” we’ll see if they can pull it all together too.
Apple might wind up with 25% of this market – the high end. that would be phenomenal, profit-wise. Android could match that – the low end – with RIM not far behind. MS, Nokia, and other will divide up the rest.
only Apple will be able to dictate its ecosystem rules to the telcos tho, and thus retain full integrity. all the others will have to modify their ecosystems to suit the demands of various telcos. look for example at how Verizon is forcing Bing onto RIM’s Blackberries now (not to mention RIM”s two-for-one price discounting). this is part of the bigger “fragmentation” problem everyone but Apple is facing. and that will always be Apple’s big selling point, worth the premium price.
January 2nd, 2010
Trying to kill the iPhone with a weak product like the current crop of Droid phones (or the Palm Pre, for that matter) is not a winning strategy. Google believes, clearly, in the MSFT model of spreading an OS around by letting any idiot (even Motorola!) license it. This isn’t how MSFT became successful– they succeeded because IT guys in Enterprise make the purchasing decisions, and Window’s quirks and bugginess keep them employed.
January 2nd, 2010
The prediction I have for 2010: By the end of 2010, Android phones will have a higher market share than the iPhone. But there will be no one phone that beats the iPhone.
January 2nd, 2010
One thing that never seems to be taken into account in these reports is that there is only 1 iPhone.
The Nexus One isn’t alone in the market, there are many Android phones out with more to come. Apple can’t say that. The Nexus One doesn’t need to take all of Apple’s market share, just the portion that the other Android phones leave behind. Considering the fact that you can choose a provider and still have Android, more and more people will be switching in the future, without having to switch to ATT.
There’s not just one iPhone killer, there are 9 with more on the way.
January 2nd, 2010
“The Nexus One isn’t alone in the market, there are many Android phones out with more to come. Apple can’t say that. The Nexus One doesn’t need to take all of Apple’s market share, just the portion that the other Android phones leave behind. Considering the fact that you can choose a provider and still have Android, more and more people will be switching in the future, without having to switch to ATT.”
With each telecom company trying to put it’s own personal stamp on the OS causing problems with application development & operability. Each phone fighting for a piece of what’s left over. With so many models to choose from consumers will become confused. Look at the advertising for these phones, all very vague. The first “google” phones can’t even run the new OS. Some phones are being sold with the older OS on them & Can’t be upgraded. I think Android will only wind up competing with itself & Winmo phones. Look at the interfaces on all these different phones. Mass confusion for developers also.
January 2nd, 2010
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2009/12/17/apple-vs-google-its-all-about-who-pays/
January 2nd, 2010
@ Jim,
Android phones are taking market share but they are taking it from Symbian and Windows Mobile not iPhone OS X.
Until some company makes a smartphone that actually causes more than 2 or 3 iPhone users to switch, there is no iPhone Killer.
January 2nd, 2010
I suspect that unless AT&T does something to improve their reception and their coverage, Android phones will soon outsell iPhones, especially as Android technology improves. The main comment I hear from other iPhone users (and have uttered myself) is that I love the phone, but hate AT&T.
January 2nd, 2010
“With each telecom company trying to put it’s own personal stamp on the OS causing problems with application development & operability. Each phone fighting for a piece of what’s left over. With so many models to choose from consumers will become confused. Look at the advertising for these phones, all very vague. The first “google” phones can’t even run the new OS. Some phones are being sold with the older OS on them & Can’t be upgraded. I think Android will only wind up competing with itself & Winmo phones. Look at the interfaces on all these different phones. Mass confusion for developers also.”
Just like what happened with windows and pcs right? oh wait…
fragmentation isn’t a problem. For every developer that chooses not to develop for android due to fragmentation, 2 more will because of the potential profits of fulfilling a need.
To many phones to choose from? that doesn’t seem to be hurting nokia or RIM at all. Customers like choice. The fact that there is only 1 look/feel of the iphone is what has put off several people I know from getting an iphone.
Fragmentation is just the FUD that ifanboys use to play down the success android has shown so far.
January 2nd, 2010
Well it’s nice to compare something new to something that has been out for almost a year (technically the iPhone 3GS is just a small upgrade from the 3G.) What no-one is talking about it what happens this year when the 4th Gen iPhone is released. The one good thing about the new Android phones is that now the pressure is on Apple to make a serious update and not a lame attempt which is the 3GS. Most of the upgrades could have been done with the OS, the processor speed bump is so-so. Now that they own PA semi, watch for some real cool things.
January 3rd, 2010
Apple really hasn’t unveiled anything inovative since the original iphone. From rumors i’ve read it seems that the big things that may be in the iphone 4g is a 5mp camera and multitasking…. both of which would be playing catchup to android devices.
That being said, i hope the next iphone is beyond awesome because competition is nothing but good for the consumer.
January 3rd, 2010
Having had two iPhones stolen and little to ziltch support from AT&T and Apple I am saying G-BY to APPLE AND AT&T!!
January 3rd, 2010
@Micah : Apple playing catch-up with just those minor changes could be enough to keep people attracted to the device. As for innovation, Apple hasn’t been very innovative with their iPod line over the years, but I don’t think they’re really trying either. for the most part, iPods have become smaller and more colorful, but have stuck with the core functions. The iPhone was the biggest leap to try something new with iPod.
There will be no single device that will de-thrown the iPhone. Android phones will in part become a standard and the iPhone will remain for the more privileged.
As far as fragmentation, limitations on hardware are causes for bugs in a lot of software, not branded versions of Android. Like games on PCs that require special graphics cards and processor speeds, applications on Android will require certain hardware to run properly. Because of the way apps are made for Android, other devices can theoretically run the software, but users can expect that installing apps on incompatible systems will give them unexpected results.
Fragmentation is a good thing. It allows developers to target niches and maximize profit. Consumers get less expensive choices when selecting devices, and the market grows due to low barriers to entry/exit. Having a single manufacture limits consumer choice while the monopoly receives all the fiscal and economic profit. Imagine if everyone had an iPhone that couldn’t be controlled nor personalized in any way. When my product is no different than yours, then the value of my product is $0, regardless of what I paid for it.
In the future, I can see Apple taking the iPhone the same route they have with the iPod by giving the consumer a handful of choices (even if its the same monopoly). However, I think Android will beat Apple to the punch limiting Apple’s ability to maximize profit.
January 3rd, 2010
Android killed Microsoft’s Windows Mobile phone, and kicked Microsoft out of the mobile phone race.
January 3rd, 2010
@Yeshua Watson,
“However, I think Android will beat Apple to the punch limiting Apple’s ability to maximize profit.”
What does beating the iPhone and profit margins have in common?…..Nothing, nada, ziltch, Yeshua.
Does Apple have a monopoly in computers?.. No. They have as little as 5% of the world market, yet they have the highest profit margins in the industry. The iPhone alone is the most profitable phone on the planet as a matter of fact.
Google has no bearing on Apple’s margins my friend. Only Apple determines that, through proper supply chain management.
January 3rd, 2010
I truely believe the only iphone killer that will ever come out will come from apple themselves.
Mostly because of the zealot like fanbase that will never buy anything but apple.
But again, I am a believer that competition drives inovation, so i welcome apple to do more and more with the iphone.
We all saw what happened when IE won the browser wars? We ended up with a stagnant browser (ie6) for a very long time. In fact we stayed with IE6 until a new competitor (firefox) drove IE to improve again.
Same thing with Apple and Android. Apple caused the whole smartphone world to start coming up with new things, and android has already caused apple to implement some of its features in the iphone (such as a built in compass, so all those ARG apps can work).
Competition is nothing but good for the market.
(But i still think android is gonna push iphone into a niche market within 2 years)
January 3rd, 2010
Android has already become severely fragmented and now Google is competing against its own offspring. Imagine how Moto/Droid and Sony/Xperia now feel about Google coming out with the Nexus with an OS they don’t have yet? Now you understand why Samsung went with a custom Linux OS for their new phones.
January 4th, 2010
Android will wipe WiMo completely. iPhone will grow.
March 6th, 2010
It will be great to watch Status Quo, i have bought tickets from
http://ticketfront.com/event/Status_Quo-tickets looking forward to it.