Windows Phone, and Gaddafi, will rise again!
Few doubt that the volume leader will eventually be the Android platform and, hey, Google’s already got a lock on mobile malware. But, as with everything else in life, quantity is only as good as the qualities it embodies.
MacTech quotes the latest bit of smartphone market analysis from IDC. In addition to predicting near 50 percent growth for the segment this year, they also say that Android will be the number one platform by 2012 and that Windows Phone will number two by 2015.
“Android is poised to take over as the leading smartphone operating system in 2011 after racing into the number 2 position in 2010,” says Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC’s Mobile Devices Technology and Trends team. “For the vendors who made Android the cornerstone of their smartphone strategies, 2010 was the coming-out party. This year will see a coronation party as these same vendors broaden and deepen their portfolios to reach more customers, particularly first-time smartphone users.”
Yup, they’re predicting iOS will be number three in about three years and that Windows Phone, current models of which are either given away or sold for $50 to the unknowing, will rise into the number two spot.
“Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences,” says Llamas. “The new alliance brings together Nokia’s hardware capabilities and Windows Phone’s differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android.”
And, isn’t this just a beautiful example of turning wishful thinking into pageviews? The twisted art of staying relevant by saying something really stupid — polishing two turds will yield a diamond — good on, ya, IDC!
The data doesn’t lie
Yes, the Android platform will be the volume leader and, as we’ve already seen, this platform dominance is already nearly total vis-a-vis mobile malware. However, as is also the case with the Mac, the iPhone accounts for some low double-digit piece of the volume yet earns two-thirds of the profits and virtually none of the unsightly rashes.
Again, Windows insecurity is the stuff of Android’s future, so Google et al are welcome to the unit volume and malware bragging rights — really, dig in with both hands.
But, Windows Phone as number two? Microsoft’s smartphone sales have been so impressive since relaunch last Fall that they haven’t published data.
Moreover, Windows Phone is so attractive as a platform that Microsoft has to pay developers to code for it.
Yeah, it’s possible that Windows Phone could rise phoenix-like from Windows Mobile’s ashes, but I honestly believe Muammar Gaddafi will be named UN General Secretary before that happens…
What’s you take?
Related posts:
March 29th, 2011
There is no reason why Windows Phone can’t become #3 smartphone leader as is. Development is picking up quickly, so are users. Yes any mobile platform would have a rocky start, remember those G1 and Android 1.0 days…? Who wouldn’t like to develop on .NET and silverlight, when its soo easy. Nevertheless Android picked up just fine, now Windows Phone 7 1.0 is light years better then Android 1.0, mainstream smartphone users were scared to touch first iterations of Android, so yes WP7 will do just fine. I expect Windows Phone 7 to start becoming pretty popular by fall 2011. Now a reason for #2 spot is very reasonable as Nokia will come in right the best time. Time when WP7 platform will begin getting a word on street as awsome platform, Nokia will come in and advertise in U.S. with some mind blowing hardware as always. That would create a big spike in marketshare. While iPhone is loosing it,first no iPhone 5 summer 2011 plus unless they change their UI they are prety much maxed out with their ideas, we can see that clearly when compare iPhone 3GS to iPhone 4.
March 29th, 2011
Windows phone 7, given the time, will eventually wipe iPhone of the charts, thats my take…
March 29th, 2011
The issue is what will iOs5 and iOs6 be like and will apple innovate beyond the basic touch interface?
If and when Apple leaves Google behind (maps etc) do they change the game again and if so all the projections change.
This is not certain but it is probably certain that MSFT, Google or RIM will most likely not do anything that changes the playing-field much. They may take advantage of opportunities in channel or hardware but they will not be the ones to change the paradigm
March 30th, 2011
Gaddafi uses a Windows Phone. Didn’t you know.
He likes to keep people inside a walled-garden.
So, Windows Phone will continue as long as the Gaddafi regime continues.
March 30th, 2011
If you say that Microsoft did not change the paradigm with WP7, then you obviously know nothing about it. It is a completely fresh GUI, and nothing like Android or Apple’s. Don’t drink the koolaid. Appls is not the only innovator on the planet.
April 14th, 2011
nice one!